Winter 2010

Date: 2010 February 18

Author:donald e shaw

WEak EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND PERSIST INTO THE 2009-10 NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WINTER. THE LIKELIHOOD OF A CONTINUING EL NINO EVENT INFLUENCES THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR OND 2009 THROUGH 2010, MAINLY VIA COMPOSITES FOR WEAK-TO-MODERATE EVENTS. THE IMPACT OF EL NINO ON THE CLIMATE OVER NORTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST DURING THE WINTER SEASONS. A MODERATE STRENGTH EL NINO IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE WINTER. A STRONG EVENT IS LESS LIKELY, BUT STILL POSSIBLE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THIS EVENT IS CONSIDERED IN THE SEASONAL FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY AT LONGER LEAD TIMES. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR 2009-10 INDICATES AN ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONTINENT .Source: U.S. National Weather Service